Brig Asif Haroon Raja
India succeeded in creating Bangladesh after dismembering Pakistan into two halves in December 1971. In this RAW played a key role in polluting the minds of Bengalis under Mujibur Rehman against West Pakistan and instigating them to revolt and gain independence. Former Soviet Union provided diplomatic, political and military support to India and helped Indian forces in achieving victory over beleaguered small Pakistan army garrison. After its grand success, RAW was given another mission to exploit fissiparous tendencies in smaller provinces and create similar conditions in remaining Pakistan with main focus on Sindh. Some of the reasons for picking up Sindh were critical importance of Karachi with lone seaport which is the economic hub of Pakistan; almost indefensible desert border belt; absence of middle class and exploitable poverty stricken lower class in interior Sindh; presence of small but affluent Hindu community in Sindh; above all, it provided soft belly because of terrain configuration. GM Sayed and other Sindhi nationalist parties were cultivated and instigated to raise the slogan of Sindhu Desh. Hanging of ZA Bhutto in April 1979 led to establishment of a terrorist organisation Al-Zulfiqar led by Bhutto sons, which was assisted by India, Afghanistan, Soviet Union, Libya and Syria.
When Pakistan stood up as a frontline state to combat Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in December 1979, it gave an opportunity to India to join hands with Soviet installed Kabul regime and with its strategic partner USSR to destabilise Pakistan through covert operations. India had all along supported Pakhtunistan stunt propagated by former NAP led by Ghaffar Khan and supported by Kabul and Moscow. KGB, KHAD, RAW along with Al-Zulfiqar in unison indulged in unrelenting acts of sabotage and subversion throughout the eight-year Afghan war. Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a product of Marri and Mengal dissidents, was also created to carryout acts of sabotage in Balochistan. The MRD movement in interior Sindh in 1983 headed by PPP was backed by India. Al-Zulfiqar, which had turned into a militant wing of PPP, was provided full support by RAW and its anti-state activities continued till early nineties. World Sindhi Conference was held in New Delhi and chaired by PM Indira Gandhi. She pledged full support to the cause of Sindhis in Pakistan. The movement had to be crushed using force. The nationalist parties in Sindh and in NWFP were mandated not to allow construction of Kalabagh Dam (KBD) at any cost since KBD had the potential of offsetting Indian future strategy of blocking water in the three rivers flowing from held Kashmir by building dams. Later on the MQM and Baloch nationalist parties too joined the bandwagon of anti-KBD lobby.
In the meanwhile another organisation MQM under Altaf Hussain surfaced in Karachi in 1984 and it became a political platform to give air to the grievances of Urdu speaking Muhajirs against the Sindhis in particular and the central government in general. Reportedly, its military wing was cultivated by RAW which was trained to work towards creating a state within state in Karachi through terrorism and to gradually spread its influence in all urban centres of Sindh and become the leading political force. By the close of 1980s, the MQM was able to gain full control over Karachi and to a lesser degree Hyderabad through high-handed tactics. Altaf emerged as the icon and established several no-go areas to gain complete sway over Karachi.
The CIA and MI-6 also had a role in giving added muscle to the MQM; it was induced by dangling the carrot of converting Karachi into a free port on the model of Hong Kong. It was on this point that differences arose among senior leaders of the party and Afaq Ahmed and Amer Ahmed fell apart and formed their own party MQM Haqiqui in 1991 and stood in opposition. After the 1992 Operation Cleanup in Sindh which was abandoned halfway due to political reasons, another rangers-police operation was launched in 1995-96 which broke the back of hardcore MQM militants. Its political leadership however stayed intact because it had absconded. It adopted the same course when Nawaz decided to proceed against MQM leadership on receipt of ample proofs of their complicity in the murder of Hakim Said in 1998. London provided safe havens to the runaways where a full fledged MQM Secretariat is operating since 1992.
Though Pak-US closeness in 1980s due to Afghan war upset Indian designs, RAW continued with its covert operations in rural and urban Sindh and succeeded in accentuating antagonism between old and new Sindhis. Side by side, India continued to modernize and expand its military capability in a big way with emphasis on mechanization of ground forces and up gradation of its air and naval arms with the help of former Soviet Union which became its chief arm supplier. Having learnt lessons that the terrain in Punjab studded with obstacles disallowed generation of optimum combat power and resulted in a stalemate, India began to lay weight on its mechanised forces with focus on desert areas providing ample scope to employ its armoured and mechanised forces. The military planners eyed on the vulnerability of its soft underbelly in Reti-Rahimyar Khan sector.
Within this narrowest waistline, road-rail communication run perilously close to the border and its interdiction severs Sindh from rest of the country. Umarkot-Chhor sector leading to Hyderabad and Badin-Sajawal sector leading towards Karachi also figures in their planning. Besides creating five RAPIDS particularly meant for desert operations and raising the strength of armoured divisions and independent armoured brigades to four and seven respectively, an amphibious brigade and parachute brigade were raised and helicopter squadrons made integral to each strike corps. Nuclear tipped Prithvi missiles have also been integrated with army's strike formations. Road-rail communication system in Rajasthan was improved and forward logistic bases established. Mobility was improved by inducting tracked logistic vehicles and mounting artillery guns on tracked vehicles.
Having acquired the requisite desert capability, an attempt was made in 1985-86 in the form of Exercise Brass-tacks which was conducted perilously close to our border in the desert belt. It fizzled out because of Pakistan army's strategic reserves imaginative move in critical area of Punjab and volatile situation in East Punjab because of Khalistan movement and freedom struggle raging in occupied Kashmir. The two movements within grasping reach were all set to form an alliance. Had this move materialised as wished by Gen Ziaul Haq, it would have sounded a death knell for Indian Union. Khalistan and Kashmir cards helped in neutralising Sindh card. Zia having played a key role in bringing down the colossus of Soviet Union and in making USA the sole super power, he along with several high ranking army officers were cruelly bumped off in a plane crash by ungrateful USA in August 1988. Later on, self serving USA also ditched Pakistan and Afghan Mujahideen who had paid a colossal price for the outstanding victory.
Pakistan was subjected to tough sanctions under Pressler Amendment in 1990. After the demise of Soviet Union in 1991, India became the strategic partner of USA and both started to find ways and means to tame Pakistan. Pressler Amendment was introduced to impose military and economic sanctions on Pakistan on account of its alleged program of nuclearisation. The bogey of Islamic bomb was also raised to keep Pakistan under pressure. India worked on the theme of getting Pakistan declared as a terrorist state on account of its alleged support to Kashmiri freedom fighters. Once Pakistan became nuclear in May 1998, it became a compelling reason for USA, India and Israel to denuclearise it and turn it into a client state of India. Besides imposing added sanctions efforts were made to declare Pakistan a terrorist and a failed state. Despondency was created through Indo-US-Western media and heavy mandate democratic government portrayed in black.
With the coming in of George Bush in power in January 2001, talk of balkanisation of Pakistan gained currency. Besides nuclear factor, development of Gwadar as seaport with Chinese help and growing Pak-China military ties consternated the plot makers. Gwadar not only enabled China to break US encirclement but also provided access to its navy in Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean which India and USA wanted to turn it into its exclusive lake. It also opened vistas for Pakistan to improve its economic health and thus reduce its dependency on USA and the west. Gwadar also sabotages Indian grand encirclement plan of Pakistan. Indian strenuous efforts to increase its military presence in Afghanistan in addition to its already enhanced socio-politico-economic influence, together with commissioning of Road Kandahar-Chahbahar and establishment of an airbase in Tajikistan are steps in that direction.
In December 2007 military standoff which continued till May 2008, bulk of Indian strike formations had assembled in areas opposite to the Reti-Rahimyar Khan waistline in Kishangarh area with the hope that with a little push, restive Sindh would revolt. Although Pakistan army has put up a massive defensive effort to offset the vulnerability, it remains an attraction for the aggressor. One of the operational possibilities open to Indian military in case it achieves a breakthrough in the waistline and breaks out across River Indus is to move towards restive Sui-Kahan area via Ubaro. RAW has been using this route for supporting rebellious Baloch.
Laid down objectives will be achieved preferably through covert means alone supplemented by Kerry-Lugar bill, or limited attacks by Indian forces, or combination of limited attacks and all out Indo-Pak war depending upon the success achieved in battle of frontiers and neutralisation of our nukes. Sudden flurry of terrorist attacks in Peshawar, Kohat, Shangla, Lahore, GHQ and Islamabad and maximisation of pressure to commence operation in Waziristan as well as in South Punjab, desire to attack alleged Afghan Taliban Shura with drones in Balochistan and sudden closure of security check posts by Afghan government along its border attached with Bajaur are not without ulterior motives. I repeat my warning that November-December will be critical. Although operation in South Waziristan has started with a bang, however, our fight against terrorists must not be at the cost of lowering our operational preparedness against our arch enemy which has never missed an opportunity to harm Pakistan.I will write about Indian war plan in my next article.
Brig Asif Haroon is a Member, Board of Advisors, Opinion Maker. He is a defence and security analyst based at Rawalpindi and author of several books.
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