INDIA carried out five nuclear tests on May 12, 1998 amidst fanfare. The ruling BJP proudly declared all the tests successful. Despite US doubts it was claimed that 45KT yield had been achieved. Abdul Kalam was rewarded and made president of India. Scientist K. Santhanan, who was part of Pokharan II tests and is senior scientist, has now revealed after over a decade that yield of thermonuclear explosion was much below expectations and tests were a fizzle rather than a big bang.
In other words, it was a failure. He has urged the government not to sign the CTBT since more tests were required for hydrogen bomb to perfect the device.
Although the UPA government and the BJP have disagreed with his contention, the fact, however, is that he could not have made this revelation on such a sensitive matter without the blessing of policymakers.
Indian army chief Gen Deepak Kapoor tried to tickle Pakistan by asserting that India has never been a threat to Pakistan. Till very recent he was giving haughty statements. He has no say in the Indian decision-making body and remains at the beck and call of Lok Sabha to do as told to do.
Hence, his assurance is deceptive and deepens mistrust rather than promoting trust and confidence.
After his so-called assurance, he is now seeking a review of India's nuclear doctrine and wants it to be expanded and upgraded.
In his and in Indian naval chief's view, 70 to 90 nukes with Pakistan are excessive and go beyond the concept of minimum credible deterrence. They say that Pakistan has exceeded the minimum nuclear deterrence level. They also claim that Pakistan has improved upon US-made Harpoon missiles issued to the Pakistan Navy for use by ground troops.
The US media too has publicised these concerns. The Indian media, joined by political hawks, scientists and intellectuals, is indulging in heated debates and exerting pressure on the government to review the nuclear doctrine and conduct further nuclear tests to maintain superiority over Pakistan.
Stories of insecurity of our nukes are still in circulation. Like India, US leaders are also worried that Pakistan is striving to make qualitative and quantitative improvements in its arsenal.
While making unsubstantiated allegations against us, India ignores the fact that not a single case of theft or accident has taken place in Pakistan. Conversely, 152 theft cases of uranium have taken place in India since 1984.
No eyebrows have been raised in the US or western world which starts making loud noises even on a fabricated story of a possible theft of a nuke from Pakistan arsenal and deem it dangerous for world security.
The Indo-US civilian nuclear deal has allowed India unfettered access to nuclear material and technology from all the suppliers.
Since India can import nuclear fuel for its nuclear rectors, its indigenous 300 tonnes of uranium is available for producing fissile material from eight of Candu Type nuclear plants with 220 mw capacities each. These are outside the purview of IAEA safeguards. The Indo-US deal doesn't impose any restriction on further testing by India.
In US estimate, Pakistan has 70 to 90 nuclear warheads as against current Indian stock of 200, over and above small tactical nukes.
With free access to nuclear materials from international suppliers group, India will be in a position to produce 40 nukes annually.
The purpose of nuclear buildup is not to counter Chinese threat, which is not there, but to render Pakistan impotent.
The Kerry-Lugar bill has a clause wherein Pakistan will not only prevent proliferation of nuclear-related material and expertise but will also dismantle supplier networks relating to nuclear expansion of nuclear stockpile.
The US will not provide any assistance that may help in expanding nuclear stockpile.
It implies that Pakistan will be debarred from undertaking any kind of upgradation of its nuclear assets, even from its own resources. It is widely seen as a document of surrender.
ASIF HAROON RAJA
Rawalpindi
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