Asif Haroon Raja
The gang of conspirators in Kabul is keeping its fingers crossed and watching unfolding of events in Pakistan with mixed feelings. On one hand they are happy that they succeeded in pushing Pak army into the hellhole in greater strength thereby weakening its military strength in critical eastern sector. They were optimistic that battles on three fronts of Lower Dir, Buner and Swat would be hard nuts to crack, given the state of ground preparations, war munitions and level of motivation of the militants under Fazlullah. They were expecting that once the army got bogged down probably in the valley of Swat where main battle was to be given, it would be impelled to further thin out its strategic reserves. Activation of Upper Dir, Batkhela and Shangla was part of plan to effectively pin down corps plus size force in this region. Thereafter, Bajaur front and possibly Mohmand-Khyber Agencies were to be heated up with Baitullah in South Waziristan providing necessary back up support in addition to regular flow of reinforcement from Kunar and Paktia provinces in Afghanistan. Idea was to get another two division force consumed in Bajaur-Mohmand-Khyber regions.
In their plans, corps plus size force was required in two Waziristans, which would be rekindled at an opportune time, with Khost acting as main logistic base for regular supplies. Balochistan front was also to be triggered to keep 12 Corps committed. To generate maximum heat, Karachi, interior Sindh and northern areas were to be brewed up. Future plan of activating eastern front in coming winter hinged on consumption of 4-5 Corps in counter insurgency operations thereby giving India a definite edge to mount its decisive maneuver resting on Cold Start doctrine. US troops in Afghanistan were to step into FATA under the garb of hot pursuit operations to destroy Al-Qaeda bases.
The Swat militants had planned to give initial battles at Lower Dir and Buner which acted as their Advanced Guard positions and then fight main defensive battle in Swat in which the bloodiest battle was to be fought in twin towns of Mingora and Saidu Sharif. They had planned to fight street battles and house to house battles making civilians as human shields and making good use of Israeli made sniper rifles with range of one km, improvised mines, barricades, mines provided by RAW, American weapons. From last February onwards, they had carried out extensive preparations to convert major towns into fortresses, and vantage points on heights along the funnel shaped valley into strongholds. Last ditch battles were to be fought in depth area of Bahrain , Kalam, Charbagh as fall back positions.
While Indo-US-Israeli nexus had formulated its plan, the army was not sitting idle. It was closely monitoring the fast deteriorating security situation both along the eastern and western border as well as internal situation duly stoked by the masterminds. Notwithstanding repeated assertions by US military and civilian leaders that existential threat to Pakistan was posed by the militants and not by India and that it should shift all its forces from the east to the northwest to save Pakistan from going into the hands of extremist forces, the army under Gen Kayani kept its cool and did not get carried away by the motivated hype. Well-knowing that India was a treacherous enemy and its designs against Pakistan were unchanged, the army shifted some additional troops to beef up effort in Malakand Division but not at the cost of losing strategic balance. Extra force was pumped in to conduct simultaneous attacks against different targets and wind up operation speedily. FC was asked to keep Bajaur under tight watch and to handle Buner at its own which it did commendably well. Additional force for Waziristan was earmarked but not dispatched to conserve upon strategic assets of air and choppers.. Unexpected unfolding of developments took the militants and their patrons by complete surprise. The lightening speed and tenacity with which operation Rah-e-Rast was launched and stunning victories achieved in quick succession flabbergasted them. They could not imagine in their wildest imaginations that the military would hit out at multiple fronts, both against fortified major towns as well as strongholds on mountain peaks simultaneously.
What upset their plans was the sudden and audacious night attack by commandoes led by SSG Commander Maj Gen Haroon preceded by aerial attack on their command HQ at Peuchar where top leadership of Swat Taliban including Fazlullah was housed. It was a daring and brilliant heli-borne commando raid on inaccessible and almost impassable stronghold, which not only disintegrated the command centre, but in all probability eliminated top leadership.
Another wise move made was to seal off withdrawal and supply routes from outside. Collapse of command structure and communication system, destruction of munitions dumps and disruption of supply lines caused the rout. Although all the trouble spots have been taken over by the army, it will take another two months for re-establishment of writ of civil government and for displaced persons to return to their homes. Army is likely stay on in Swat for a year or so but is in a good position to pull out extra troops whenever it wants.
Whereas peace deal had gone against sinister plans of our adversaries, rapid successes made by the military have also not been to their liking. What they wanted was a no-win situation in which both sides should have bled. Change of tide in favor of the military has upset their time-programmed plan to make Pakistan lawless and ungovernable so as to provide an excuse to USA to seek military intervention from UNSC to take over nuclear weapons and safeguard world security. Mass exodus of the people from battle zone was also part of the plan to shift militancy from selected areas of Frontier Region to major cities of Punjab . They had never expected that 80% of 3 million displaced people would be happily accommodated by the people of NWFP and philanthropists and general public would come forward with undying generosity. Punjab government took the lead by providing free flour and other commodities to the affected. In order to put a spanner in the relief work generated from within, pro-India nationalist parties were pumped up to play up threat of Talibanisation and block the entry of IDPs. The suicide brigade and saboteurs have been keyed up to wreck havoc in the cities. Already some incidents have taken place in Lahore , Peshawar , DIK and Upper Dir. Kidnapping of students of Razmak College from Bannu district by Baitullah men was also link of the chain and meant to exert pressure to stop military operations which have constricted their space. Thanks to very prompt and gallant action by the military which helped in rescuing the students and averting a crisis situation.
While the militants are on the run and completely disorganized and their mentors are glum, critics of Pakistan have become mute; praises are coming forth guardedly and sparingly with ifs and buts. Loose talk of escape of militant leaders, collateral damage and plight of stranded people in some areas and of IDPs, militants within IDPs and threat to our nuclear weapons is already in the air, which is likely to gain currency. Our adversaries must be devising new ways to keep the pot of terror steaming.
Liberal brigade of writers will help in promoting new themes of detractors to mar the good work done by the army. While the army has still to do lot of work in some other areas, the government should spring into action and launch socio-politico-economic program with speed and utmost sincerity to win the hearts and minds of the Pashtuns who are feeling neglected and left out. This is absolutely essential to further upset sinister designs of our adversaries.
—The writer is a retired Brig and a defence analyst.
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